Analysis of mortality surveillance data: Guide on the determination of excess mortality

Analysis of mortality surveillance data during the COVID-19 pandemic can take two general forms. First, a descriptive report can review surveillance data over an extended time frame (e.g. over the course of one year) to provide a comprehensive assessment of how COVID-19 may have affected mortality patterns in a country (or subnational jurisdiction). Monitoring reports another type of data product, focuses on the most recently available mortality surveillance data (e.g. from the prior week) and evaluates the direction and magnitude of changes in those data. This document presents job aids 1 – 5, which provide guidance on basic and intermediate determinations related to mortality surveillance analysis. A separate template is available to facilitate the routine analysis and interpretation of mortality surveillance data that are presented in monitoring reports.